Gold remains close to June 5 high as receding Fed hike bets undermine USD
- Gold attracts some follow-through buyers on Monday, though it lacks bullish conviction.
- Receding Fed rate hike bets continue to undermine the USD and support the commodity.
- Geopolitical risks help limit deeper USD losses and cap the upside for the precious metal.
Gold (XAU/USD) builds on Friday's bounce from the $4,300 neighborhood, or a one-week low, and gains some follow-through positive traction at the start of a new week. The commodity, however, struggles to capitalize on the momentum beyond the $4,400 mark and remains below its highest level since June 5, touched on Friday, amid mixed fundamental cues.
Data released on Friday showed that US Retail Sales dropped 0.6% in July, marking the first fall in nine months and the biggest monthly decline since May last year. Adding to this, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dipped in August to 51 from 55.2 in the previous month. This comes on top of signs of cooling US inflation and further tempers expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which continues to undermine the US Dollar (USD) and lends support to the non-yielding bullion.
Investors, however, remain worried that volatile energy prices could complicate the inflation outlook and force the Fed to stick to a hawkish stance. Moreover, persistent geopolitical uncertainties help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven USD, capping the upside for the Gold price. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US is preparing to hit Iran with economic measures that have never been seen, as soon as this week. This, along with the US-Iran standoff, keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and should support the buck.
In other developments, President Donald Trump said that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a “territory of the United States.” Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the US must agree to Tehran's conditions in order for shipping to resume through the waterway and that there were no negotiations currently taking place. Apart from this, fresh Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries remain supportive of higher oil prices, keeping inflation fears and bets for at least one Fed rate hike in 2026 on the table.
According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in around a 65% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. This, in turn, warrants some caution for USD bears and before positioning for any further appreciating move in the Gold price as traders await further cues about the Fed's future policy path. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. Apart from this, the incoming geopolitical headlines might influence the USD and the precious metal.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the $4,400 mark, or the 50% retracement level of the April-June decline, warrant some caution for XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, the precious metal remains below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the broader tone capped despite the recent recovery.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.43 leans toward bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory. Improving momentum indicators, however, only hint that buyers are attempting a rebound within a still bearish, resistance-heavy backdrop.
Nevertheless, sustained strength and acceptance above the $4,400 mark (50% retracement level) should allow the Gold price to test the 200-day SMA near $4,506 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,509. Further barriers are seen at the 78.6% Fibo level at $4,666 and the cycle high zone at $4,865.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $4,290, ahead of the 23.6% level at $4,154, while a deeper slide would expose the structural floor around the Fibonacci anchor near $3,935.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.