Japanese Yen: Consolidates near 158 against US Dollar - UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe choppy USD/JPY price action around 158.35, with Monday’s spike followed by a brief drop below strong support at 157.85. That breach has eased immediate upside pressure, and they now see the pair in a higher range-trading phase between 157.50 and 159.05. Despite a firmer underlying tone, their 1–3 months view still anticipates further Dollar-Yen weakness driven by increasing downward momentum.

Higher range consolidates after support breach

"24-HOUR VIEW: USD rose to a high of 158.75 on Monday. Yesterday, we indicated that “despite the relatively sharp rise, upward momentum has not strengthened much,” and we held the view that USD “is likely to trade within a range of 158.20/158.80.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected, as USD fell sharply, but briefly, to 157.81 before rebounding to close at 158.29 (-0.20%). The choppy price action provides no fresh clues. Today, USD could trade between 157.95 and 158.70."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After expecting USD to trade in a range since late last month, we highlighted the following yesterday (13 Oct, spot at 158.50): “Upward momentum is starting to build, and from here, USD could edge higher toward 159.05. USD must break clearly above this level before further sustained rise is likely. To sustain the momentum build-up, USD must hold above the ‘strong support’ level, now at 157.85.” However, USD broke below 157.85 as it fell briefly to a low of 157.81. The breach of our ‘strong support’ indicates that the immediate upward pressure has eased, and USD has likely moved back into a range-trading phase. That said, the firmer underlying tone suggests that USD is likely to trade within higher range of 157.50/159.05."

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