20 Jan 2016
US CPI: Consumer prices probably held steady in December - SocGen
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Societe Generale, suggests that capped by yet another motor fuel-led reduction in retail energy quotes, the headline CPI probably was unchanged for a second consecutive month in December.
Key Quotes
“Gasoline pump prices for all grades and formulations nationwide fell by 5.1% to $2.144 per gallon during the reference period – the lowest level since April 2009 – eclipsing government statisticians’ expectations for a 2.0% seasonal decline. Together with anticipated weather related falloffs in home heating oil (-2.9%) and residential natural gas (-3.5%) costs, the resultant 3.7% drop in motor fuel prices would pare the CPI energy gauge by 2.2%, almost double the 1.3% decline posted in November.
Consistent with developments at the wholesale level, consumer food prices likely remained stable in December, following virtually no change over the prior two months. Net of anticipated readings on food and energy components, the core CPI probably continued apace, rising by 0.2% (0.161% unrounded) for a fourth straight month.
A reacceleration of shelter and medical care services costs, together with rebounds in apparel and used vehicle prices, are expected to contribute to the rise in the core CPI in December. Our forecast would place the CPI 0.8% above the figure recorded at the end of 2014. The year-to-year growth of the core sub-index, meanwhile, is expected to edge one tick higher to 2.1% – the largest 12-month advance since the period ended July 2012.”
Key Quotes
“Gasoline pump prices for all grades and formulations nationwide fell by 5.1% to $2.144 per gallon during the reference period – the lowest level since April 2009 – eclipsing government statisticians’ expectations for a 2.0% seasonal decline. Together with anticipated weather related falloffs in home heating oil (-2.9%) and residential natural gas (-3.5%) costs, the resultant 3.7% drop in motor fuel prices would pare the CPI energy gauge by 2.2%, almost double the 1.3% decline posted in November.
Consistent with developments at the wholesale level, consumer food prices likely remained stable in December, following virtually no change over the prior two months. Net of anticipated readings on food and energy components, the core CPI probably continued apace, rising by 0.2% (0.161% unrounded) for a fourth straight month.
A reacceleration of shelter and medical care services costs, together with rebounds in apparel and used vehicle prices, are expected to contribute to the rise in the core CPI in December. Our forecast would place the CPI 0.8% above the figure recorded at the end of 2014. The year-to-year growth of the core sub-index, meanwhile, is expected to edge one tick higher to 2.1% – the largest 12-month advance since the period ended July 2012.”